With decades of experience helping organizations navigate change through technology, HRTech expert Ling-Yi Tsai has a unique perspective on the evolving dynamics between employers and labor. Today, she joins us to dissect the surprising paradox in recent unionization trends: while the total number of union elections has decreased, union win rates are soaring to historic highs. We’ll explore the sophisticated strategies driving these union victories, the growing influence of external economic pressures on organizing efforts, and the proactive steps employers must take to assess their own vulnerabilities and build a more resilient workforce.
We’re seeing a fascinating trend where unions are winning nearly 80% of representation elections, a near-record high, yet the total number of elections has actually gone down compared to last year. From your perspective, what’s driving this dynamic of ‘winning more with less,’ and what does it tell us about union organizing strategies today?
It tells us that unions are operating with surgical precision. The drop in elections from 1,336 in 2024 to 1,162 this year isn’t a sign of weakness; it’s a sign of a much more strategic, data-driven approach. Organizers are no longer just casting a wide net. They are investing heavily in groundwork, identifying workplaces where the conditions are ripe for organization and building overwhelming support before they ever file a petition. This focus means they aren’t wasting resources on long-shot campaigns, which in turn drives that staggering 79.3% success rate. The feeling is less about widespread canvassing and more about targeted, high-impact campaigns that are almost guaranteed to succeed.
It’s truly striking that even when a company files to decertify a union, backed by what they believe is objective evidence of employee dissatisfaction, the union still wins 78% of the time. Could you walk us through why employers are so often misreading the room here and what unions are doing so effectively to rally support even when they seem to be on the back foot?
This is where employers make a critical psychological error. That “objective evidence” is often just the vocal complaints of a small, dissatisfied minority, which management mistakes for a widespread sentiment. When the company initiates the decertification process, the union masterfully reframes it not as an act of liberation for employees, but as an aggressive, anti-worker attack from corporate. It becomes the perfect “us versus them” scenario. This action from the employer often shocks ambivalent employees into action, reminding them exactly why they felt they needed a union in the first place. The union’s ability to turn the company’s move into a live demonstration of corporate overreach is precisely why they can pull off that remarkable 78% win rate in those situations.
The conversation around unionizing seems to be expanding beyond the workplace. We’re seeing external pressures like the soaring cost of housing and food become major catalysts for organizing. How does this shift the landscape for employers who might have previously focused only on internal relationships, and what tangible steps can they take to show they’re invested in their employees’ overall financial well-being?
The landscape has been fundamentally altered. For years, the focus was on the relationship between an employee and their direct supervisor. While that’s still critical, it’s no longer enough. A friendly, supportive boss doesn’t help an employee who can’t afford rent or groceries. The conversation has shifted from just workplace grievances to a more holistic question: “Does this job provide a solid, middle-class existence?” Employers must now address this head-on. This means offering not just competitive pay, but a living wage that reflects the local cost of living. It’s about creating transparent pathways for growth and promotion so people can see a future, not just a job. The companies that thrive will be the ones that prove, through action, that they are the best vehicle for their employees’ financial security and stability.
Looking at specific unions, the success is even more pronounced—the SEIU and IBEW are boasting win rates of 83% and even 89%. What are you seeing on the ground? What are these highly successful unions doing differently in their playbooks that allows them to connect so deeply with workers, and what’s the key takeaway for an employer who wants to build that same level of trust and engagement organically?
What sets unions like the SEIU and IBEW apart is their deep, industry-specific focus and their mastery of peer-to-peer organizing. They aren’t using generic messaging; they speak the language of the workers they are organizing, addressing the precise pain points unique to service employees or electrical workers. More importantly, they build powerful internal organizing committees, empowering trusted employees to lead the charge from within. This feels authentic and grassroots, not like an outside organization imposing its will. The lesson for employers is that top-down, one-size-fits-all communication is dead. You have to listen intently at the team level, understand the unique daily realities of different roles, and empower your frontline supervisors to be genuine advocates and problem-solvers.
You mentioned the idea of a ‘unionization vulnerability assessment,’ which sounds like a critical proactive step. If you were sitting down one-on-one with a company’s supervisors, what are a couple of the most revealing questions you would ask to truly gauge the company’s risk, and what kind of answers would set off alarm bells for you?
To really get under the surface, I would avoid generic questions. First, I’d ask, “Tell me about the most common frustration you hear from your team, not in official meetings, but in the breakroom or during informal chats.” This uncovers the real, unfiltered sentiment. Second, I would ask, “If you had a magic wand and could change one company policy tomorrow to make your team’s jobs better, what would it be and why?” This reveals if supervisors are in touch with their team’s biggest obstacles. The biggest alarm bell isn’t an answer filled with complaints; it’s a supervisor who says, “I don’t know” or “My team doesn’t really complain.” That silence is a deafening signal of a massive disconnect, and it’s in that void that union organizing thrives.
What is your forecast for union organizing and election trends over the next few years?
I forecast that this trend of highly strategic, targeted organizing will not only continue but accelerate, likely amplified by more sophisticated use of data analytics to identify vulnerable workforces. The hard reality for employers is that the external economic and social pressures fueling these drives are not going away. Issues like affordable housing, healthcare costs, and the desire for a stable future will remain at the forefront of workers’ minds. Consequently, employers will have a 20% chance of success once an election petition is filed. The most forward-thinking leaders will shift from a defensive, reactive posture to a continuously proactive one, investing in their employees not as a union-avoidance tactic, but as a core business strategy for building a resilient and engaged organization for the long term.