Microsoft’s $7.3 Billion Gain from Windows 10 Support End

I’m thrilled to sit down with Dominic Jainy, a seasoned IT professional whose deep knowledge of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and blockchain gives him a unique perspective on the evolving tech landscape. Today, we’re diving into Microsoft’s decision to end support for Windows 10 in October 2025 and the potential ramifications for users, businesses, and even the environment. Our conversation explores the strategic motivations behind this move, the financial implications through the Extended Security Updates (ESU) program, and the broader impact on technology adoption and sustainability.

What prompted Microsoft to end support for Windows 10, and what’s the bigger picture behind this decision?

Microsoft’s decision to end support for Windows 10 in October 2025 is largely driven by a combination of lifecycle management and business strategy. Windows 10 has been around since 2015, and after a decade, tech companies often phase out older systems to push users toward newer platforms like Windows 11, which offer enhanced features and security. Beyond that, ending support allows Microsoft to focus resources on innovation rather than maintaining an aging system. It’s also a nudge for users to upgrade, which can drive hardware sales through partnerships and boost adoption of cloud-based services. The bigger picture is about staying competitive in a fast-moving industry while ensuring users are on secure, modern systems.

How does this end of support impact the millions of users still running Windows 10 on their devices?

For the roughly 400 million users still on Windows 10, this is a significant shift. Once support ends, Microsoft will stop releasing security patches and bug fixes, leaving systems vulnerable to new threats. If a flaw is discovered, there won’t be an official fix, which could expose personal data or business operations to cyberattacks. Users will either need to upgrade to Windows 11, subscribe to the Extended Security Updates program for temporary protection, or risk running an unsupported OS. It’s a tough spot, especially for those whose hardware can’t support the newer system or who can’t afford immediate upgrades.

Can you walk us through what the Extended Security Updates (ESU) program offers to those who aren’t ready to upgrade?

The ESU program is essentially a lifeline for Windows 10 users who can’t or won’t transition right away. It provides critical security updates for an additional period after the October 2025 deadline, though it’s not a full support package. You won’t get new features, non-security updates, or technical assistance—just the bare minimum to keep systems somewhat secure. It’s designed as a stopgap, giving users extra time to plan their migration to Windows 11 or replace outdated hardware. It’s clear Microsoft wants this to be temporary, not a long-term solution.

Who do you think the ESU program is primarily targeting, and why?

The ESU program seems to be primarily aimed at businesses and enterprises rather than individual households. Large organizations often have complex IT environments with thousands of devices, and transitioning to a new OS can take years due to compatibility issues, custom software, or budget constraints. Around 121 million business computers are still on Windows 10, so there’s a huge market there. Households can also enroll, with pricing covering up to 10 devices, but the structure and escalating costs suggest Microsoft is banking on enterprise subscriptions for the bulk of the revenue.

Let’s talk about the costs—how much are users and businesses looking at to join the ESU program?

For businesses, the cost starts at $61 per device for the first year of ESU, and it doubles each subsequent year, which can get expensive fast. For households, it’s more affordable at about $30 for the first year, covering up to 10 devices, which makes it a reasonable option for families or small setups. The escalating cost for businesses is likely a way to strongly encourage upgrading sooner rather than later, while the household pricing feels more like a gesture to keep individual users supported without breaking the bank. It’s a tiered approach to maximize reach and revenue.

Analysts estimate Microsoft could earn billions from this program—how do these numbers add up?

The numbers are staggering. Analysts at a software firm have projected Microsoft could rake in around $7.3 billion from the ESU program, with a significant chunk—about $5.9 billion—coming from enterprise subscriptions alone. This is based on the fact that of the 1.4 billion Windows PCs globally, roughly 30% are tied to businesses or public organizations. Even if Windows 10 usage drops by a third before the deadline, you’re still looking at over 120 million business devices potentially enrolling. Multiply that by the per-device cost, and factor in yearly increases, and you see how quickly it adds up to billions.

Why is Microsoft rolling out access to the ESU program gradually instead of opening it to everyone at once?

Rolling out the ESU program in stages is likely a logistical decision. Microsoft is dealing with a massive user base—hundreds of millions of devices—and opening enrollment to everyone simultaneously could overwhelm their systems or support infrastructure. By staggering access, they can manage demand, troubleshoot issues, and ensure a smoother process. They’ve also promised that everyone will be able to join before the support deadline, which suggests they’re confident in scaling up over time while avoiding a chaotic launch.

Environmental groups have raised concerns about this move—can you explain why ending Windows 10 support might lead to a surge in electronic waste?

Environmental groups are worried because ending support for Windows 10 could force millions of users to ditch perfectly functional computers. Many devices running Windows 10 don’t meet the hardware requirements for Windows 11, so upgrading the OS isn’t an option without buying new machines. With nearly 400 million computers affected, a mass disposal could create the largest surge in e-waste we’ve ever seen. This puts pressure on waste management systems and undermines sustainability efforts, as functioning hardware gets scrapped prematurely instead of being reused or repurposed.

What’s your forecast for how this transition away from Windows 10 will play out over the next few years?

I think the transition will be a slow and uneven process. Major manufacturers like HP and Dell have already said they expect many users to delay upgrading well into 2026, especially businesses with complex systems. On the consumer side, cost barriers and hardware limitations will keep a chunk of users on Windows 10, either through ESU or at their own risk. Microsoft will likely push harder for Windows 11 adoption with incentives or stricter policies, but we’ll see a fragmented landscape for a while. The bigger question is whether this sets a precedent for shorter support cycles in the future, which could reshape how we think about tech longevity and sustainability.

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