Vietnam’s digital marketplace is expanding at a breakneck pace, creating immense wealth and opportunity, yet this very engine of growth is also carving a deep economic chasm between its bustling cities and the nation’s vast rural heartland. The rapid evolution of the country’s online economy presents a complex narrative of progress shadowed by inequality. While headlines celebrate soaring market valuations and double-digit growth, a closer examination reveals a landscape where the benefits of this digital revolution are largely confined to a few metropolitan hubs, leaving the majority of the country struggling to keep pace. This analysis delves into the critical challenge of fostering inclusive growth in a nation where digital infrastructure, skills, and commercial activity are becoming increasingly concentrated.
The Paradox of Progress: Explosive Growth and Concentrated Gains
The central theme of this analysis is the dualistic development of Vietnam’s e-commerce sector. It is simultaneously experiencing explosive, multi-billion-dollar growth while creating a pronounced digital divide between its primary economic centers and the rest of the nation. This dynamic underscores a fundamental challenge for emerging economies: how to ensure that the rapid adoption of digital technologies translates into equitable and widespread prosperity rather than reinforcing existing regional disparities. The study addresses the urgent need to understand and mitigate the structural imbalances that arise when digital opportunities and capabilities are highly concentrated.
This powerful growth is not an isolated phenomenon but is deeply rooted in Vietnam’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals, including impressive GDP growth, rising per capita income, and a vibrant retail sector. These factors have created a fertile ground for digital commerce to flourish. However, the nation’s e-commerce market is now at a pivotal juncture. Having expanded eightfold since 2015, the sector is moving beyond a phase of pure expansion and is now entering a new era focused on sustainable development, robust regulation, and greater market transparency. A clear understanding of the current structural fractures is therefore essential for policymakers and business leaders aiming to shape an effective and inclusive digital future for all of Vietnam.
Contextualizing Vietnam’s Digital Ascent
Vietnam’s e-commerce expansion is underpinned by a robust macroeconomic environment that has consistently fostered consumer confidence and spending. In 2024, the nation’s GDP grew by a strong 7 percent, reaching an estimated value of US$476 billion, while per capita income climbed to approximately US$4,700. This economic vitality was driven significantly by the services sector, which expanded by 7.4 percent, with wholesale and retail activities increasing by nearly 8 percent. This surge in domestic consumption is a critical pillar supporting the country’s thriving online marketplace. This broader economic momentum directly translated into accelerated growth in digital commerce, which reached a remarkable US$32 billion in 2024, marking a 27 percent year-on-year increase. Online retail sales accounted for a substantial US$22.5 billion of this total, growing by 30 percent and pushing e-commerce’s share of total retail sales from 10 percent to around 12 percent. This expansion was supported by a rapidly scaling logistics and delivery infrastructure, which handled an estimated 2.4 billion e-commerce-related parcels, reflecting a 30 percent increase from the previous year.
Research Methodology, Findings, and Implications
Methodology: Quantifying the Divide with the E-Business Index
This analysis is based on the comprehensive findings of the 2025 Vietnam E-Business Index (EBI) report, a landmark study published by the Vietnam E-commerce Association (VECOM). The credibility of the report stems from its rigorous methodology, which involved an extensive nationwide survey of thousands of businesses across all provinces and major cities.
The EBI framework evaluates localities on three core pillars that are fundamental to a functioning digital economy. These pillars are: infrastructure and human resources, which assesses the foundational elements like telecommunications and digital skills; business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce, which measures the maturity of online retail; and business-to-business (B2B) transactions, which gauges the integration of digital processes in corporate supply chains. This multifaceted approach provides a holistic and data-driven snapshot of the e-commerce landscape.
Findings: A Tale of Two Vietnams
The report’s findings reveal a stark and deeply entrenched regional disparity, painting a picture of two distinct Vietnams. The economic powerhouses of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City dramatically outperform the rest of the country, with EBI scores of 74.7 and 73.5 points, respectively. In sharp contrast, the national average EBI score is a mere 9.3 points, a statistic that powerfully illustrates the developmental chasm between the two metropolitan giants and the other 61 provinces.
This gap is most extreme in the consumer-facing e-commerce segment. While Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City demonstrated mature online retail markets, the top-performing provinces outside this duo scored only negligible points, indicating an almost complete concentration of B2C activity. This digital divide exists alongside a booming overall market, creating a paradox where immense growth coexists with profound inequality. The foundation for this disparity is also evident in infrastructure and human resources, where the leading cities scored above 76.9 points, while most other localities lacked the essential logistical and skill-based frameworks to compete effectively.
Implications: Navigating a Fractured Digital Landscape
For businesses, these findings present a complex strategic landscape characterized by both immense opportunity and significant operational challenges. The overall market’s rapid growth trajectory is highly attractive for domestic and foreign enterprises alike. However, success hinges on developing nuanced strategies that account for the profound regional disparities in digital infrastructure, logistics capabilities, and consumer digital literacy. A one-size-fits-all approach is destined to fail in a market with such deep structural fractures.
From an investment perspective, the report highlights a critical trade-off. While the metropolitan markets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are mature and highly competitive, the untapped potential of emerging provincial markets is substantial. Investors must carefully weigh the long-term growth prospects of these regions against the significant upfront capital and resources required to overcome their current structural limitations, such as underdeveloped delivery networks and a less digitally savvy consumer base.
Reflection and Future Directions
Reflection: Evaluating the EBI’s Insights
The 2025 EBI study successfully moved beyond anecdotal evidence to quantify the digital divide with clear, data-driven analysis. By systematically surveying thousands of businesses and scoring localities on consistent metrics, the report provides credible and compelling proof of the structural challenges confronting Vietnam’s digital economy. Its comprehensive approach lends significant weight to its conclusions and serves as an invaluable tool for policymakers. The research effectively highlights a critical warning: if left unaddressed, the current growth trajectory will likely exacerbate existing economic inequalities between Vietnam’s prosperous urban centers and its developing provinces. The concentration of digital commerce in just two cities creates a feedback loop that attracts more investment and talent, further widening the gap. The report’s implicit argument is that proactive and targeted intervention is necessary to steer the market toward a more balanced and equitable future.
Future Directions: Forging a Path Toward Inclusive Growth
Future development now hinges on the effective implementation of strategic policy and regulatory advancements. Key initiatives, including the National E-commerce Development Master Plan for 2026–2030 and a dedicated E-commerce Law, are central to this effort. These frameworks are designed to create a more level playing field by lowering barriers to digital participation for provincial businesses and improving market transparency.
To ensure these policies are effective, future research must shift toward monitoring their real-world impact. Subsequent studies should track progress in bridging the regional divide, assess the accessibility of digital tools for small and medium-sized enterprises outside the major cities, and evaluate improvements in market transparency. A particular focus on establishing standardized statistical reporting will be crucial for holding both public and private sector actors accountable for fostering inclusive growth.
Conclusion: Balancing Growth with Equity in Vietnam’s Digital Future
The 2025 EBI report painted a clear and compelling picture of a vibrant but unevenly developed e-commerce market in Vietnam. The analysis confirmed that while the nation celebrated remarkable digital growth, the widening gap between its primary economic centers and its vast provincial regions posed a significant long-term risk to sustainable and equitable development. The evidence pointed toward a digital economy that, despite its dynamism, was concentrating wealth and opportunity rather than distributing it broadly. Ultimately, the study concluded that Vietnam’s future success in the global digital era would be determined by the ability of its policymakers and business leaders to collaborate on a shared vision for inclusive growth. The challenge was no longer about simply fostering growth, but about managing it wisely. Fostering a more equitable and balanced e-commerce ecosystem was identified as the critical next step, ensuring that the benefits of the digital revolution could be harnessed to uplift the entire country.