I’m thrilled to sit down with Nikolai Braiden, a trailblazer in the FinTech space and an early adopter of blockchain technology. With his deep expertise in financial technology and a passion for its transformative potential, Nikolai has been a guiding force for startups looking to innovate in digital payments and lending systems. Today, we’re diving into the exciting trends shaping the 2025 holiday shopping season, particularly the explosive growth of mobile shopping and the rising popularity of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services. Our conversation explores how these trends are redefining retail, the economic and behavioral factors driving them, and what they mean for both consumers and businesses.
How has the growth of mobile shopping evolved leading into the 2025 holiday season compared to past years?
The growth of mobile shopping has been nothing short of remarkable. For 2025, forecasts show mobile revenue hitting a record 56.1% of total holiday sales, which is a historic first. That’s a solid 8.5% jump from last year, translating to about $142.7 billion in spending. What’s striking is how mobile has become the go-to platform—seven out of ten online retail visits this season are happening on mobile devices. It’s a clear sign that consumers are prioritizing convenience and accessibility over traditional desktop or in-store experiences.
What does it mean for the retail industry that mobile is now driving over half of holiday sales?
It’s a game-changer. This shift signals that retailers must prioritize mobile-first strategies—think seamless apps, optimized websites, and quick checkout processes. It’s not just about keeping up; it’s about meeting customers where they are. This milestone also means that investments in mobile tech, like personalized ads or push notifications, are paying off big time. For the industry, it’s a wake-up call to double down on user experience because mobile isn’t just a trend—it’s the future of retail.
What do you think is behind the surge in mobile device usage for online shopping this year?
A few things are at play here. First, smartphones are now an extension of daily life—people are comfortable browsing and buying on the go. Second, mobile platforms have gotten incredibly user-friendly with faster load times, better interfaces, and secure payment options. Add to that the influence of social media shopping and in-app purchases, and you’ve got a perfect storm of convenience. It’s no surprise that consumers are gravitating toward mobile for their holiday hauls.
Are there specific mobile features or conveniences that you believe are fueling this massive $142.7 billion in projected spending?
Absolutely. Features like one-click checkout, saved payment info, and integrated wallets make buying a breeze. Then there’s the role of personalized recommendations—apps use data to suggest products you’re likely to love, especially during the holiday rush. Mobile also ties into location-based deals or notifications about flash sales, which create urgency. These conveniences lower the friction of shopping, turning casual browsing into actual purchases.
Turning to Buy Now, Pay Later options, what’s driving the expectation of $1 billion in BNPL transactions on Cyber Monday alone?
Cyber Monday has become the pinnacle of online deal-hunting, and BNPL fits perfectly into that frenzy. Shoppers are looking to snag big-ticket items or bulk up on gifts without the upfront cost. BNPL offers a way to split payments interest-free or at low rates, which is incredibly appealing when budgets are tight. Hitting $1 billion on that single day shows how embedded BNPL has become in high-stakes shopping moments—it’s a lifeline for many.
Why do you think Cyber Monday is the first day to reach this BNPL milestone compared to other shopping days?
Cyber Monday stands out because it’s purely digital, unlike Black Friday, which still has a strong in-store component. Online shoppers are more exposed to BNPL options at checkout, especially on mobile platforms where these services are heavily promoted. The day also attracts deal-seekers who are ready to spend big on electronics or holiday must-haves, and BNPL makes those purchases feel more manageable. It’s the perfect alignment of timing, behavior, and technology.
With BNPL spending projected at $20 billion for the holiday season, what’s behind this 10% growth from last year?
Several factors are fueling this. Economic uncertainty is a big one—people are looking for ways to stretch their dollars without racking up credit card debt. BNPL’s flexibility to spread out payments over weeks or months eases that immediate financial hit. Plus, its availability has exploded—almost every major retailer and even smaller businesses now offer it at checkout. That ubiquity, combined with a growing comfort level among consumers, is pushing usage higher.
How does the economic climate influence the decision to use BNPL during holiday shopping?
When budgets are squeezed, whether from inflation or other pressures, shoppers get cautious about big upfront costs. BNPL steps in as a solution—it’s often seen as a safer bet than maxing out a credit card, especially with no or low-interest options. For holiday shopping, when spending spikes, it’s a way to afford gifts or essentials without the stress of a huge bill in January. It’s really about managing cash flow in uncertain times.
What role does the flexibility of BNPL play in its growing appeal among shoppers?
Flexibility is the heart of BNPL’s appeal. Being able to break a $200 purchase into four $50 payments over a month or two feels a lot less daunting. It gives shoppers control over their finances, letting them plan around paychecks or other expenses. During the holidays, when you’re juggling multiple purchases, that kind of breathing room is invaluable. It’s less about borrowing and more about timing your spending in a way that works for you.
Why are so many retailers, from big chains to small businesses, jumping on the BNPL bandwagon at checkout?
Retailers see BNPL as a win-win. It boosts sales by lowering the barrier to purchase—customers are more likely to buy if they don’t have to pay everything upfront. It also reduces cart abandonment, which is a huge issue online. For small businesses, offering BNPL levels the playing field with bigger players, showing they’re modern and customer-focused. Plus, partnerships with BNPL providers are often easy to set up, so it’s a low-risk way to attract more buyers.
With about $16 billion of BNPL spending expected via mobile devices, how does this trend shape the shopping experience?
It makes shopping incredibly seamless. Mobile devices already offer speed and convenience, and layering BNPL on top means you can browse, pick, and finance a purchase in minutes without leaving an app. It’s especially impactful for impulse buys or last-minute holiday gifts—shoppers see a deal, know they can split the cost, and hit buy without overthinking. It’s turning mobile into a one-stop shop for both discovery and affordability.
What potential challenges or risks should shoppers be aware of when using BNPL, especially during the holiday rush?
BNPL is handy, but it’s not without pitfalls. One big risk is overextending yourself—those small payments add up, and if you’re not tracking them, you could end up in a hole. Late fees can also sneak up if you miss a payment, especially with multiple BNPL plans running at once during the holidays. There’s also the temptation to overspend just because it feels ‘easy.’ Shoppers need to stay mindful and treat BNPL like any other financial commitment.
Looking at key shopping days, why is Cyber Monday expected to surpass Black Friday in BNPL transactions?
Cyber Monday’s focus on online deals plays a huge role—BNPL thrives in digital spaces where it’s often front and center at checkout. Black Friday, while massive, still splits attention between in-store and online, and not all physical stores push BNPL as aggressively. Cyber Monday shoppers are also often hunting for tech or pricier items, which align well with BNPL’s appeal. That’s why we’re seeing projections of $1 billion for Cyber Monday versus $750 million for Black Friday.
How do shopping behaviors differ between Black Friday and Cyber Monday when it comes to mobile and BNPL usage?
Black Friday still has a strong in-person component—think doorbusters and crowded stores—where mobile and BNPL might take a backseat to cash or card swipes. A lot of shoppers are also focused on immediate gratification, grabbing deals in-store. Cyber Monday, on the other hand, is all about online convenience, often from the comfort of home or even during work breaks on mobile devices. That digital focus naturally lends itself to higher BNPL adoption and mobile engagement.
What’s your forecast for the future of mobile shopping and BNPL beyond this holiday season?
I’m incredibly bullish on both. Mobile shopping will likely keep climbing as younger, tech-savvy generations drive retail trends—expect even tighter integration with social platforms and augmented reality for virtual try-ons. BNPL, meanwhile, will mature; we’ll see more regulation to protect consumers, but also innovation in how it’s offered, like tying it to loyalty programs. The synergy between mobile and BNPL will only deepen, making shopping faster, smarter, and more accessible. I think we’re just scratching the surface of how these tools will reshape commerce.