Today, we’re thrilled to sit down with Nicholas Braiden, a pioneering figure in the fintech world and an early adopter of blockchain technology. With his deep expertise in financial technology and a passion for its transformative potential, Nicholas has advised countless startups on harnessing innovation to revolutionize digital payments and lending systems. In this interview, we dive into the latest trends reshaping the global payments industry, exploring the impact of cutting-edge technologies like agentic AI and real-time payments, regional growth patterns, and the evolving role of fintechs and digital currencies.
How would you summarize the current state of the global payments industry based on recent insights, and what stands out to you about the projected growth trajectory?
The global payments industry is at a fascinating crossroads. According to recent reports, we’re looking at a projected revenue of $2.4 trillion by 2029, which is impressive, but the growth rate is expected to slow to about 4% annually over the next five years, down from nearly 9% in recent years. What stands out to me is that while traditional growth drivers, like deposit margins from high interest rates, are losing steam, transaction-based revenues are holding strong. This shift signals a maturing market where innovation, rather than just economic tailwinds, will be the key to staying ahead.
What do you think is behind the slowdown in growth rates for payments revenue, and how are industry dynamics changing as a result?
The slowdown largely ties back to fading benefits from higher interest rates that previously boosted deposit margins. As those tailwinds weaken, companies can’t rely on passive income streams anymore. We’re seeing a pivot toward more sustainable growth through technology and transaction-based models. This is pushing firms to rethink their strategies, focusing on efficiency and customer-centric solutions. It’s a bit of a wake-up call—those who don’t adapt to these new dynamics risk falling behind.
There’s talk of a ‘foundational reset’ in the payments space. Can you unpack what that means for the industry?
Absolutely. A ‘foundational reset’ refers to a fundamental shift in how the payments ecosystem operates, driven by disruptive technologies and changing consumer expectations. It’s about moving away from legacy systems and growth models toward a more tech-driven, agile framework. This reset is fueled by innovations like agentic AI, which personalizes user experiences, and real-time payments, which offer instant transactions. It’s a complete overhaul of the plumbing of payments, forcing companies to rebuild their infrastructure and rethink how they deliver value.
Speaking of agentic AI, it’s predicted to influence a massive amount of e-commerce spending. How would you describe what agentic AI is and why it’s such a game-changer?
Agentic AI is a next-level form of artificial intelligence that doesn’t just react to inputs but proactively makes decisions on behalf of users. Think of it as a virtual assistant with decision-making power—for instance, it could search, compare, and even purchase products for you online based on your preferences. Its potential to influence over $1 trillion in e-commerce spending is staggering because it streamlines the buying process. With a significant portion of US consumers expected to adopt it for shopping, it’s poised to redefine online retail by making transactions faster and more personalized.
How do you see agentic AI reshaping consumer behavior in online shopping over the next few years?
I think agentic AI will fundamentally change how we shop online. With its ability to anticipate needs and handle purchases autonomously, it reduces friction in the buying journey. Imagine not having to scroll through endless product listings—your AI agent does it for you and picks the best deal. This could lead to more impulse buys but also more informed decisions, as the AI can analyze vast amounts of data instantly. Over the next few years, I expect it to drive a surge in e-commerce volumes while raising the bar for personalized customer experiences.
Real-time payments are another major trend, with significant global growth in transaction volumes. What’s fueling this rapid adoption worldwide?
Real-time payments, especially account-to-account transactions, have exploded with a 40% volume increase in 2024 alone, and it’s no surprise. The biggest driver is consumer demand for speed and convenience—people want their money to move instantly, whether it’s paying a bill or splitting a tab. On top of that, businesses benefit from faster cash flow, and governments in many regions are pushing infrastructure upgrades to support these systems. It’s a win-win, which is why we’re seeing it account for a growing share of digital retail payments globally.
Why do you think some markets, like India and Brazil, are leading the charge in real-time payment adoption compared to others?
Markets like India and Brazil have leapt ahead—with over 50% of transactions already real-time—largely due to strong government-backed initiatives and widespread mobile penetration. In India, for example, systems like UPI have made instant payments accessible to millions, even in rural areas, by leveraging smartphones. Brazil’s Pix system similarly offers a seamless, low-cost alternative to traditional methods. These regions also had less entrenched legacy systems, so they could build modern frameworks from the ground up, unlike some developed markets where old infrastructure slows progress.
Looking at regions like the Middle East and Africa, where real-time payments are still gaining traction, what factors do you believe will push adoption past the 50% mark by the end of the decade?
In the Middle East and Africa, the trajectory for real-time payments looks promising, with projections to surpass 50% adoption by 2030. Key factors will include increased smartphone usage and internet access, which are expanding rapidly in these regions. Additionally, government policies and investments in digital infrastructure will play a huge role—think national payment systems or incentives for digital transactions. As younger, tech-savvy populations grow, demand for instant, seamless payments will naturally rise, pushing businesses and banks to keep up.
Shifting gears to regional revenue trends, why is Latin America expected to lead with such strong growth in payments revenue over the next few years?
Latin America’s projected 7.9% annual growth rate through 2029 is driven by a combination of factors. First, there’s a huge push toward financial inclusion, with digital tools bringing banking services to previously unbanked populations. Second, the region has seen rapid adoption of mobile payments and fintech solutions, spurred by a young, digitally native demographic. Add to that favorable regulatory environments in countries like Brazil, and you’ve got a recipe for robust growth. It’s an exciting market to watch as it outpaces more mature regions.
What’s your forecast for the future of the global payments industry as these technological and regional shifts continue to unfold?
I’m optimistic about the future of the global payments industry, but it’s going to be a complex journey. Technologies like agentic AI and real-time payments will keep driving efficiency and personalization, fundamentally changing how consumers and businesses interact with money. Regionally, emerging markets will likely continue to lead in growth as they leapfrog older systems with innovative solutions. However, the challenge will be balancing rapid tech adoption with security and regulatory oversight. I foresee a decade where the winners will be those who can integrate these new tools deeply into their operations while staying agile in a fast-evolving landscape.